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Article: Market Outlook: Lower Low Then Green the Next Week | Peter Pan

2011-06-12T15:49:00.005-04:00

Another cool chart & market analysis by Peter Pan this weekend at http://www.safehaven.com/article/21299/market-outlook-lower-low-then-green-the-next-week. I think his projected market path makes a lot of sense.

Article: A Forward and Backward Look at the Cycles for 2011 | Clif Droke

2011-06-05T19:12:00.002-04:00

Clif Droke wrote another cycles analysis, "A Forward and Backward Look at the Cycles for 2011" published today at http://www.safehaven.com/article/21212/a-forward-and-backward-look-at-the-cycles-for-2011. It's an interesting read.

Article: A Look at the Coming 6-Year Cycle Peak | Clif Droke

2011-05-30T21:08:00.002-04:00

Check out this article, since this author is worth being aware of: A Look at the Coming 6-Year Cycle Peak | Clif Droke | Safehaven.com, this weekend at http://www.safehaven.com/article/21137/a-look-at-the-coming-6-year-cycle-peak.

Bearish alt. wave counts

2011-05-30T15:42:00.004-04:00

I'm happy to see someone else is considering (actually, using) an alternate wave count based on seeing the rise from March 2009 as a
large three-wave ABC. The article is "Market Outlook (Could be green next week but not without a fight)" | by Peter Pan | at Safehaven.com this weekend at http://www.safehaven.com/article/21150/market-outlook-could-be-green-next-week-but-not-without-a-fight. However, I think Peter's internal count for the C wave isn't correct. I count it as having finished 3 of 5, so the wave 4 may not be done
yet. The wave 5 of C may top in June, or July, or October. (Real
specific, eh?! :)))). This Peter Pan dude produces some interesting analysis, occasionally
posted at Seeking Alpha.

Bigger question would be, what does an ABC like this represent? I believe it could be the initiating wave of an ending diagonal triangle ("EDT") (making a huge wave V up). I kinda like this one but not sure the bigger wave structure supports it. Or, it can be a wave 2 (or called B) up of an EDT if we consider the move down from 2007-2009 to have been a wave 1 (or A) down, such as a big EDT to complete a big wave C down (credit for this type of idea goes to my former trading mentor Dom). This one may have more merit. It could look like a large fractal of the wave action we've seen over the past month - a choppy series of zigzags down within a channel. Either of these implies a big move down to come (the latter with a new low under $SPX 667) but remains kinda bullish overall.

The more bearish view would be the ABC creating a large B wave before a massive wave C down that would go very much lower than $SPX 667. Not my favorite count but there it is for consideration.

Yet another idea is that these aren't ABC, but I, II, III with III almost complete. Then a very deep wave IV that can overlap wave I. Then up in wave V to complete a larger I (as a Leading diagonal triangle), followed by a larger II to retest close to $SPX 667. This Leading Diagonal Triangle idea would be consistent with the prior post about a Dow Jones average long-term view.

I've tagged this with Tony Caldaro's OEW although these wave count ideas are different from his.

Article: Next 15 Years DJIA Chart - Stock Trader's Almanac Blog

2011-05-19T19:19:00.006-04:00

I know there aren't many who read this part of my blogs. For those few who do - you may want to study this, and keep an eye on Jeff Hirsch's work. This may be a very important forecast. So if Tony Caldaro's bull market projection doesn't pan out, then we may consider this as an alternative map for the bull market. Jeff's long term chart looks to me like a large leading diagonal for wave I followed by the expected deep pullback wave II. It could make the move up that Tony's been marking as a first wave of 3 up, into its own third wave of the big leading diagonal. I'm ok with this idea because I've been thinking it could be some third wave, given its persistence. See this at http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/post/Next-15-Years-DJIA-Chart

"Whenever you see a successful business, someone once made a courageous decision."
—Peter Drucker (Austria-born pioneer management theorist, 1909-2005)

Next 15 Years DJIA Chart
By Jeffrey A. Hirsch
March 31, 2011

This chart below visually portrays my long-term forecast, which projects a continuing sideways market through the year 2017 or 2018 with the Dow remaining in range of roughly 7,000 to 14,000 before it takes off and completes a 500% move from the intraday low of 6470 on March 6, 2009 to 38,820 by the year 2025. I first revealed this forecast to subscribers on May 13, 2010 and again on page 36 of the Stock Trader's Almanac 2011.

The calculus behind this forecast includes the disengagement of the U.S. military from entrenched overseas wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and now Libya. Rising inflation from massive government spending and easy monetary policy over the next 5-10 years will begin to taper off as the stock market begins to inflate 6-fold. And finally, technological innovations from alternative energy, biotechnology or other yet-to-be-discovered fields will enable a cultural paradigm shift across the planet that will fuel exponential growth as the automobile, television, microprocessor, Internet and cell phone have done in the past. To wit: War & Peace + Inflation + Secular Bull Market + Enabling Technology = 500% Super Boom Move.

In order to create this chart I relied on the market's behavior and global economic trends during the last three major boom and bust cycles of the 20th Century revolving around the three major wars (WWI, WWII and Vietnam), as well as the monthly, seasonal, annual and 4-year cycle trends during the flat-bust periods and the rising-boom periods.

Click for larger graphic…

All the buzz that was generated by this forecast last fall when the Almanac came out, convinced me that a book length treatise on the forecast was in order. I am proud to announce the release of my brand new book, Super Boom: Why the Dow Jones Will Hit 38,820 and How You Can Profit From It, available wherever books and e-books are sold.

Article: A Bull Market Problem? | Marty Chenard | Safehaven.com

2011-05-15T11:48:00.000-04:00

Whether or not you think the answer is clear, it's interesting: http://www.safehaven.com/article/20973/a-bull-market-problem.

Article: The Reason Why the Market Does NOT Always Follow the VIX ... | Marty Chenard | Safehaven.com

2011-05-15T11:23:00.000-04:00

http://www.safehaven.com/article/20940/the-reason-why-the-market-does-not-always-follow-the-vix-.

CPCE, TRIN

2011-05-13T22:26:00.002-04:00

Looks oversold to me - will it get even more oversold?

Article: The Tectonic Shift in Oil and Gas Drilling

2011-05-13T19:29:00.002-04:00

Interesting perspective in this May 12, 2011, especially for being
bullish nat gas and bearish (at/under $105-107 $WTIC) oil: http://www.investmentu.com/2011/May/oil-and-gas-drilling-shift.html.

3 Reasons housing prices reaching a low

2011-05-09T18:10:00.003-04:00

I heard two things today that make me think housing prices are reaching an important low. One, that prices have been dropping for 57 months. That's a Fibonacci number - it could range from 55 to 58 (maybe as high as 60). Two, I heard the assertion on public radio that housing prices definitely aren't at a low but will continue falling. That brings out the contrarian in me.

The fact that housing prices usually firm in late spring and early summer is a seasonal factor that would also help.

Solar cycle update info

2011-05-09T09:15:00.004-04:00

The solar cycle was one of our clues for the bull market. Here's an update about it from "Watts Up With That?" blog at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/05/08/solar-max-so-soon/

I'm not ready to prepare a post for the main blog on this yet. But I'll get to it. Because the market does make significant highs and lows with the solar maximum and minimum. Just remember the scientists are doing predictions.

Solar Max -- So Soon?

Guest post by David Archibald

Dr Svalgaard has an interesting annotation on his chart of solar parameters – "Welcome to solar max":

Graphic source: http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png

Could it be? It seems that Solar Cycle 24 had only just begun, with solar minimum only two and a half years ago in December 2008.

The first place to confirm that is the solar polar magnetic field strength, with data from the Wilcox Solar Observatory:

Source: http://wso.stanford.edu/

The magnetic poles of the Sun reverse at solar maximum. The northern field has reversed. There are only three prior reversals in the instrument record. Another parameter that would confirm solar maximum is the heliospheric current sheet tilt angle, also from the WSO site.

The heliospheric current sheet tilt angle has taken a couple of years to reach solar maximum from its current level.

If the Sun is anywhere near solar maximum, the significance of that is that it would be the first time in the record that a short cycle was also a weak cycle, though Usoskin et al in 2009 proposed a short, asymmetric cycle in the late 18th century at the beginning of the Dalton Minimum: http://climate.arm.ac.uk/publications/arlt2.pdf

Interestingly, Ed Fix (paper in press) generated a solar model (based on forces that dare not speak their name) which predicts two consecutive, weak solar cycles, each eight years long:

The green line is the solar cycle record with alternate cycles reversed. The red line is the model output. Solar Cycles 19 to 23 are annotated.

This model has the next solar maximum in 2013 and minimum only four years later in 2017. This outcome is possible based on the Sun's behaviour to date.

Articles by Marty Chenard about $VIX charts

2011-05-08T09:15:00.000-04:00

Also see these very good articles about the $VIX, published May 3 and 4: The Market Message from the Volatility Index (VIX) ... | Marty Chenard | Safehaven.com and Part II: The Market Message from the Volatility Index (VIX) ... | Marty Chenard | Safehaven.com.

$VIX daily & weekly

2011-05-08T09:13:00.000-04:00

$VIX dropped under support of prior swing low (weekly chart at bottom), then swung up and tested resistance (easier to see on daily, first chart below).

My favorite technical charts

2011-05-08T08:54:00.000-04:00

Bullish percent went negative with dropping under 80% but is capable of recovering and remains above major moving averages. NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator oversold and started to curl up, needs to continue that and test or exceed zero midline. $TRIN is still in buy level territory, above 1.1 but not over 1.2 although at a lower high that can be a good signal that it'll move downward. Sell signals are strongest when $TRIN 10-dma is under 0.80; buys, when 10-dma is over 1.20.

Gold daily, weekly & monthly charts

2011-04-16T09:09:00.002-04:00

These are my daily, weekly and monthly charts of $GOLD. Still in bullish channels but it's reasonable to consider that gold may complete a 5-wave move of some proportion.

Chart: Large Drops in Bearish Sentiment, by Bespoke Investment Group, at SeekingAlpha

2011-04-07T22:27:00.003-04:00

Sentiment is an important indicator - perhaps now more than usual. And Bespoke Investment Group does a good job with their market insights. So check out this chart posted by them, at Seeking Alpha: Large Drops in Bearish Sentiment

Article: Schaeffer's Monday Morning Outlook: Two Major Risk Factors for the Bulls | Market Observations

2011-03-20T11:42:00.002-04:00

I've often recommended Schaeffer's weekend update, and this weekend there's another great one at

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=105587

Here's their intro quote:

It was a wild ride in the equities market last week. Stocks spiraled relentlessly lower through Wednesday, as the nuclear crisis in disaster-stricken Japan rattled markets across the globe. Then, the major indexes spent the last two days of the week charging higher, bouncing back from their year-to-date breakeven levels. In the wake of this five-day roller-coaster ride, Todd Salamone pinpoints key technical areas to watch going forward -- as well as two serious points of concern for the bulls. Meanwhile, Rocky White explains why small-cap stocks were relatively unruffled by last week's bout of volatility.

Swing charts suggest equities indices topping

2011-01-22T15:19:00.003-05:00

Article: Full Transcript: Jeremy Grantham Interview

2010-12-25T12:34:00.003-05:00

This interview was in November but still a great read: http://m.cnbc.com/us_news/40131748.

SPX, VIX, TRIN

2010-12-20T16:41:00.002-05:00

VIX looking oversold, inside day too. Doesn't mean $SPX topped but looking for a crest.VIX also broke under a t/l so after it retests that from below, probably it'll drop again. Even if it merely starts a lower but uptrending channel. Also remember, a serious equities top should be accompanied by a higher low in VIX - not a lower low, so let's look for such a disparity to form.

As for TRIN - it worked off some of the overbought, but working on getting overbought again!

McClellan charts

2010-12-18T16:28:00.000-05:00

Oscillator still repelled by downtrending line:

Bullish % charts

2010-12-18T16:11:00.000-05:00

Deterioration although prices can still edge up some more (eeek!):

$SPX, $TRIN

2010-12-15T00:15:00.002-05:00

Check the SPX' indicators. And on TRIN, the 10-dma.

McClellan: NYMO, NYSI

2010-12-15T00:11:00.002-05:00

I think these are self-explanatory:

Bullish % charts

2010-12-15T00:07:00.001-05:00

Interesting comparison including of the StochRSI:

Gold charts

2010-12-07T20:08:00.002-05:00

Gonna see if h&s starts with this last high as right shoulder. Although I prefer idea it's a third wave topping, for a good correction before next good wave up.

Oil $WTIC charts

2010-12-07T20:00:00.002-05:00

Got real close to the $91 level 50% retrace. Daily chart shows an interesting pattern with the overlapping waves and paralleling channels. For bulls, needs to be one two, one two type count instead of bear flag - wave b cresting.

SPX update charts

2010-12-07T19:12:00.004-05:00

StochRSI on daily ticked up but still backtesting. Interesting action around the 1229 level.

Sell warning vs. Nov.-April "power zone" theory

2010-12-05T12:44:00.005-05:00

Alpha Investment Management's Jerry Minton has written a newsletter article at http://www.alphaim.net/power_newsletter.html.

He argues that investors should be in the stock market during the "power zone" of November through April each year. Yet he also points out the following disturbing data:

Knowledgeable investors know that market returns are driven primarily by earnings valuation and dividends. Today's market has a historically low dividend rate (1.8% average) coupled with a historically high earnings valuation. The S&P 500 now sells at 22x the ten-year inflation-adjusted earnings average, one of the highest valuations of the past 130 years (only surpassed by 2007 and 1998-2001). No long-term bull market in U.S. history has ever begun from such high valuations and low dividend yields. In fact, every major long-term bear market (1900-1921, 1929-1942, 1968-1982, 2000-2008) has begun from valuation levels comparable to today's.

My sense is that, given what I posted earlier today that the main ChartLines blog, it's time to sell and wait for the next good low to buy, then see if the market breaks out to 1300!

$SPX update charts

2010-12-01T22:36:00.003-05:00

My old monthly chart looks interesting again, as it's closing in on 1229 the .618 retrace as it's also nearing the upper channel line in time and price. It's a monthly chart so when I say near in time, that could be a few months (unless it spikes high enough sooner - but let's see if it tags 1229 first). Once it tags 1229, also remember it can spend a day or even a week (or perhaps a month) above that before going back under. Then assuming all that happens - it would be a trigger short with stop just above that high.

All down the road .... Meantime, also below are updates of my daily and weekly.

Gasoline charts

2010-12-01T00:18:00.003-05:00

Bullish UGA weekly chart, but negative divergence on the daily. One's gotta give way.

Oil charts

2010-11-30T22:22:00.002-05:00

USO hasn't bounced as far as $WTIC. But both weekly charts show StochRSI tested midline from above. Enough for the bounce but then what? Tony Caldaro has had it marked for a C wave up - so if it manages to new highs, okay. But I'm still wondering - if there could be alternate counts ... including if there's a second part (C wave) down yet to come for a second wave or b-wave. Meaning, finish pullback and then Tony's wave C. Plus, there's the Fib retrace.

Oil ($WTIC)

2010-11-30T00:08:00.003-05:00

Well oil is supposed to be heading up in some kind of third wave or C wave. But the indicators are blah. Of course it'll look like h&s if it falls under $80 in $WTIC, so that's one way to look at it; using $80 as a stop loss for longs, or a stop order for selling it short.

Put-call ratio; VIX

2010-11-29T22:25:00.002-05:00

VIX dropped sharply. But it started the morning testing its 200 dma, after exhibiting positive divergence on its recent swing lows. Also, it opened above the downtrend channel but came back within it.

Bullish %, McClellan Oscillator

2010-11-29T22:15:00.003-05:00

Both remain in negative territory. KI$$ stock-market swings should remain in cash or defensive.

Yen update w/ support levels

2010-11-24T23:32:00.003-05:00

After I posted the warning about the yen on Oct. 19, it struggled marginally higher another couple of weeks, then dropped smartly. It can do an oversold bounce. But then it may well test lower. Support is apparent at $XJY (FXY) 116 and down to 113, based on prior price levels, the 200-day moving average, and the monthly chart uptrend channel. Approximately 113 would also test the roughly .618 Fibonacci retrace that might help confirm the yen just completed a wave 1 (of 5) up.

Dec. 16 low? Also gold & bonds charts at Terry Laundry's Weekly T Theory™ Observations - Week of November 21 2010

2010-11-21T13:03:00.003-05:00

A very interesting set of charts and analysis discussions by Terry Laundry today at his http://www.ttheory.com/. Sorry if the fonts look weird - really you should just go to his site and keep up there each Sunday and Wednesday morning!

This week's T Theory Observation will be in four parts plus a mid week Wednesday update in part E. To listen to the commentary open the mp3 Audio Commentary in one window, then open the PDF charts in a second window.

---part A---------------------

mp3 Commentary Download TTOAudio20101121A
PDF Chart Download Next SRT20101119pdf

---part B ------------

mp3 Commentary Download TTOAudio20101121B

PDF Chart DownloadMFIMidPointTopProjectionforJNK20101118pdf

PDF Download MFIMidPointTopProjectionforTLT20101112pdf

PDF Chart Download VUSTXwith 52 week ExpMApdf

---Part C----------

mp3 Commentary Download TTOAudio20101121C

PDF Chart Download MFIMidPointTopProjectionforGLD20101118pdf

PDF Chart Download MFIMidPointTopProjectionforSPX20101118pdf

---Part D----------

mp3 Commentary Download TTOAudio20101121D

Article: Monday Morning Outlook: DJIA Manages a Slim Weekly Win and Reclaims 11,200 | Market Observations | Schaeffer's Investment Research

2010-11-21T10:44:00.003-05:00

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=103604

Introduction paragraph - quote:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average clawed its way atop the 11,200 level in the final few minutes of trading on Friday, putting the week back in the win column. Looking ahead, Todd Salamone, Senior Vice President of Research, sees relatively firm short-term technical support for the market just below current levels, but longer-term resistance for the S&P 500 Index in the area between 1,200 and 1,230. Next, Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White tracks the performance of the Dow during Thanksgiving week, and uncovers a historical curiosity: the market tends to act countertrend to its year-to-date performance during the holiday week. If the pattern continues, we could see a pullback this week. Finally, we wrap up with a look at some key economic and earnings reports slated for release this week.

Article: When Does It Become Important to Watch the Level of New Lows? | Marty Chenard | Safehaven.com

2010-11-19T21:29:00.002-05:00

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18983/when-does-it-become-important-to-watch-the-level-of-new-lows

Article: Classic Sign of Deflation Has Finally Happened in Cleveland, Detroit, and Phoenix | J.D. Rosendahl | Safehaven.com

2010-11-19T20:48:00.002-05:00

http://www.safehaven.com/article/19014/classic-sign-of-deflation-has-finally-happened-in-cleveland-detroit-and-phoenix

Yen review: uptrend with negative divergence showing

2010-10-19T23:37:00.002-04:00

Tony Caldaro's OEW count has me wondering if the $xjy / FXY is going to pullback or consolidate before going to higher levels as I'm projecting (and I'm guessing Tony projects higher too). The $135 area still looks good to me as a target. Since I'm counting this as a move up after a large flat, rather than from a triangle, I would still target even higher than that, subject to waves and cycles in the meantime.

Cyclicality in Dow Jones Industrials

2010-10-14T16:22:00.003-04:00

Just a quick and rough look at cyclicality in the Dow Jones Industrials ($INDU). It isn't exact, but there's a rough symmetry of time from high-to-low-to-low that might point to a high in the time frame that Terry Laundry is looking at with his "T" (of his T Theory(tm)), November 6-10 time frame. It isn't really too surprising given that his centerpost of his "T" is right between the two lows (and happens to center about at that high in between).

You could even subdivide the vertical bars in time, and that would possibly lead to the move yesterday being a relative high point.

The working assumption right now being, that we drop from that high for several trading days, then work our way up again to put in a crest in the Nov. 6-10 time window.

Article: Can Institutional Buying and Selling Levels Predict the Market's Direction? | Marty Chenard

2010-10-03T17:38:00.002-04:00

Can Institutional Buying and Selling Levels Predict the Market's Direction? | Marty Chenard | Safehaven.com, 10/1 at http://www.safehaven.com/article/18404/can-institutional-buying-and-selling-levels-predict-the-markets-direction.

Article: Market Recap: Is 11%+ Up Guaranteed Till the Year End? | Peter Pan

2010-10-03T17:30:00.003-04:00

Interesting approach & analyses - not sure to recommend but at least enjoy looking if time permits: Market Recap: Is 11%+ Up Guaranteed Till the Year End? | Peter Pan | Safehaven.com at http://www.safehaven.com/article/18424/market-recap-is-11-up-guaranteed-till-the-year-end.

Energy looking like a leader.

2010-10-01T12:20:00.006-04:00

Nice volumes for the energy stocks OXY (+223 ave. daily volume); CNQ; ECA; COP with former parabolic leaders BIDU, VMW, NFLX getting slammed the energy space is showing serious accumulation/rotation. Added 1/4 to OXY, and initiated new CNQ and ECA positions. Stopped out of my HPQ. Look at yesterday's ECA, someone thinks crude is going to crank.

Long by weight: SDS, OXY, GMXR, VLO, CNQ, SWN, ECA, BBT.

Refiners. . . nahhh

2010-09-30T15:34:00.004-04:00

I was stopped out of all my parabolic momo plays, and I'm still getting the read that energy is in play. Maybe today's reversal is the start of a bear phase or maybe a rotation. Read this note from optionmonster "What big put action means for Tesoro" which prompted me to look at refiners VLO, TSO, FTO, MRO, HES. Anyway added some VLO and OXY.

Long by weight: Cash, SDS, GMXR, VLO, OXY, HPQ (couldn't re
sist), BBT (nice chart), ROVI.

A big move for energy.

2010-09-29T15:22:00.002-04:00

After not doing much this week I made some changes. The OIH is breaking over the 200dma with some good volume from HERO, DO, NE and the XLE is nearing 5 month resistance. I think this could be the the start of a big move in energy. All those gold profits have to go somewhere. GMXR is on fire +12; doubled SWN, initiated new DO and LDK. Moved 1/3 SDS to cash; closed 1/2 MELI

Long by weight: SDS, ROVI, NFLX, BIDU, GMXR, DO, VMW, MELI, SWN. LDK, MEA.

Spreading the bets but increased my short hedge.

2010-09-29T10:12:00.003-04:00

Mostly watching SPY 1148/ 1122 range for a break. Medtronic (MDT) seems super cheap and might be building a nice base. I might add for my buy and hold account. Long by weight: SDS, ROVI, MELI, NFLX, BIDU, VMW, MDT, GMXR, SWN. ROVI parabolic and I'll be looking for a black bar. Watching Nat gas E&Ps GMXR and SWN to retake their 50dma. MELI is looking a little toppy and might have been a false breakout.

How long to keep em?

2010-09-27T13:29:00.003-04:00

NFLX, BIDU and ROVI have gone parabolic. I moved up my sell target on BIDU to 101.50 which was hit and exceeded this AM; NFLX spooked me with the black bar on Friday and ROVI is making a monster move today. I found some rules on parabolic moves

The rules are.

Each move higher must come at a higher slope.
Each move higher must retrace below the trendline before the next spike higher occurs.
It is permissible for the price to consolidate in some sort of flat, or even move higher at a lower slope, between moves.
There should be three such moves. Not two, four or more, three.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=167324

but BIDU was +20 and NFLX +15 so I took 1/2 off the table. Initiated a new VMW 1/4 positions watching for a breakout and a small GMXR and SWN positions for a swing trade. Although my SDS hedge dampened my Friday returns its like a security blanket I just can't give up. Still great R/R on the short positions and we are nearing the May accumulation zone.

Long by weight: SDS, ROVI, NFLX, BIDU, VMW, GMXR.

Huge wall of QQQQ puts

2010-09-24T08:26:00.003-04:00

The folks at the Option Pain site are showing that their newer "Current Pain" metric is more accurate - it measures the amounts of options (calls and puts) entered into as an option position since the most recent option expiration. Therefore they seem certain it's better and they give examples. However, to get it, you need a subscription.

Here is the free Option Pain you can get there - I ran it for the QQQQ so it has info as of the close yesterday. It looks reasonable to me to see $48 but I'll agree that the target can change over the next several weeks!
Now here is the same option pain for the QQQQ but the range is enlarged to the maximum range they have for it: from $25 to $61. Notice now how there's a HUGE amount of bearish put interest in the QQQQ all the way down to $25! What are these people thinking?!

Really it's a very interesting picture of sentiment. While I tend to think that the $48.50 Fib level in the QQQQ can be very revealing as to which direction the entire market heads next, this view of option pain has me wondering if the most we'll see is a pullback, corrective move in a bull market rather than a bear market. I don't know how to reconcile such a huge wall of bearish-sentiment puts with the idea that the QQQQ price could really fall so far, so fast.

Keeping it tight

2010-09-23T10:31:00.007-04:00

I haven't been very active not seeing not many great R/R trades. Should have let the RDY trade run longer, but never argue with a profit. Lost patience with the POT position once the new litigation was announced and sold +10. VMW is losing momentum and I'll look to add back near the 50dma which as been a buy four times since May. Staying nimble with a couple breakout leaders and a big short hedge.

Long by weight: SDS,CASH, BIDU, NFLX, ROVI.

Targets: NFLX 170; Stop 150 the Volume has been huge and the P&F target is now 206; BIDU Looks like it might have the momentum to hit 100 but I'll take profits near 96; ROVI 49ish stop near 45; SDS Target 1 32 Stop 29.50ish.

QQQQ testing .786 Fib, daily swing

2010-09-22T18:44:00.002-04:00

Wish the chart picture quality were better but I'm very limited what I can do these days. The QQQQ testing its .786 retrace to April highs is a barrier. It can possibly mark a "b" wave high point (similar to Tony Caldaro's "b" wave marked on his $INDU charts) and we'll see a nice "c" wave drop. More bearishly, it could set up a downward diagonal that would even take the stock market to much lower levels ... we'll see. For now, it's reasonable to think in terms of Tony's wave c of a second wave (wave II) downward as the most bearish probability. The bulls would prefer to see a smaller-level second wave here as Tony Caldaro discussed in his weekend update applicable to his $SPX wave count.

A big hmmmmm

2010-09-16T10:13:00.004-04:00

Where do we go from here? I haven't done much this week. Stopped out of 1/4 of my SDS hedge still holding 50% (which now looks like it might be basing) Added some small positions: ABX/NEM on the gold move, CREE on Monday's bottoming action, LULU closed for +2.2, and yesterday a small CLF position. CLF has been the gift that keeps on giving. I'm encouraged by the SPY holding the 50/200, but spooked by the run that we've made. I'm not seeing a lot of good R/R trades so I'll stay small and hedged.

Long by weight: POT, SDS, BIDU, VMW, CREE, LULU,CLF,NEM, RIG, ABX. 25% Cash.

Good R/R on short ETFs.

2010-09-10T11:33:00.007-04:00

With the low volume green days, SDS and the other ultrashorts are nearing their buy target zones. SDS had it's first major accumulation back in late April/May near 30/31; Another entry point in Late June and we are nearing those same buy levels now. While I don't completely discount the possibility of a break beyond SPY 1131, the odds would favor a pullback. Closed 1/2 positions of VMW and BIDU. Closed USB. Sitting pretty small SDS, POT, VMW, BIDU, and GMXR.

I hate buying banks, but

2010-09-09T10:30:00.005-04:00

the small positions I took in "undervalued" last week banks look like they might run a bit longer. Long spec positions in HCBK, BBT, USB. HCBK just retook the 50dma and 50RSI. Sold my other chunk of RDY and watching VMW for a breakout today to add another 1/4 position.

Long by weight: POT, SDS, VMW, BIDU, NFLX, CRM, GMXR.

Euro, Yen (monthly charts, updated)

2010-09-08T18:40:00.003-04:00

Euro monthly bounced up from its 200-month MA and a 50% Fib pullback, then stalled from retesting the 38.2% Fib level. If it drops out of the channel again then it could test further down to the 61.8% Fib retracement under the 112 $XEU level.

As for the yen, the $XJY monthly chart still shows DMI-ADX in the strong uptrend that we expected whether you view it as thrust up from a long-range triangle, or (my preferred view) as a move up from a long-range flat. The tri target is about $135, the flat would get it conservatively to the 1.272 Fib extension at $138 and over time could go much higher than that.

Some small tweaks

2010-09-08T11:14:00.003-04:00

Hedge program still positive today +.48. Stopped out of 1/4 of my SDS hedge.

RDY is losing momentum and was close enough to my first target so I sold 1/2, +6.5.

Added 1/2 NFLX on a breakout over 143 target mid 150s.

Long by weight: POT, SDS, VMW, BIDU, CRM, NFLX, GMXR. 20% Cash.

KWK still looking strong, but I chickened out and sold Friday.

QQQQ $44 "max pain"

2010-09-07T19:29:00.003-04:00

It may be just a tad bit early, but I couldn't resist looking to see what the "Max Pain" folks at http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php are showing for the QQQQ for Sept. expiry - since today was Turnaround Tuesday and tomorrow will be Weird Wollie Wednesday! Keep an eye on this, you can go to that website (always in the sites list at right and at the main ChartLines site) and plug in whatever ETF or stock you like to get the data. Its pull becomes stronger as expiry approaches.

Never a complete answer for the target price where an ETF or stock price will settle at options expiration, but it does work rather well. In this case, notice the slope - it rises steeply to the right which suggests that $45 may have a chance but $46 and above don't look likely. By contrast, the put side to the left is shallower, which suggest (at least in my experience) that the QQQQ price does have a decent chance not only at $43 but perhaps a bit lower.

ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT TRADING OPTIONS, LIKE FUTURES, INVOLVES RISK!!!! The analyses and ideas on this blog are merely for information, always do your own diligence and read the disclaimers at the bottom of this page folks!

Tuesday.

2010-09-07T15:04:00.004-04:00

Hedge program still working. +.34 for the day. Glad I closed longs and added more SDS stock and calls on Friday. I just had that spooky bear feeling when the SPY stopped dead at the 200dma. Not doing much today. Tight stops on VMW, BIDU, CRM, and GMXR. Looks like a China lead POT offer is forthcoming.

Long by weight: SDS, POT, RDY, VMW, BIDU, CRM, GMXR.

TEVA is really cranking on high volume on a similar move to fellow generic RDY.

Friday Update

2010-09-03T14:44:00.003-04:00

Added some bottoming financials yesterday for a swing. Not huge positions some good stochastic and MACD buy signals: BBT, USB, HCBK. I also added to my BAC preferred ticker BACpB. One of the only preferred financials still trading below par 23.68/25 6.63% yield to boot.

Hit my targets on CLF. +10.8, +12.1. Watching the last hour like everyone else, but I'll probably double by SDS hedge going into next week. SDS near 31 has been a great buy.

Article: Does the Bull Market End Now or Continue On? | Marty Chenard | Safehaven.com

2010-09-02T21:21:00.002-04:00

A quote from this article published yesterday: "The real question at this level still remains: "Will the current Bull market now END and turn into a Bear market, or will it continue on and make new highs?" ... At http://www.safehaven.com/article/18040/does-the-bull-market-end-now-or-continue-on

$NatGas & UNG (maybe a 4th wave consol ahead? or is low getting put in soon)

2010-08-31T21:34:00.002-04:00

Be careful because there isn't a pattern buy signal yet so the low may not be complete. At some point it should show up soon though. UNG seems to run counter to stocks often so maybe after a stock bounce finishes UNG might be giving a buy signal. Wanna see the ol' buying volumes kick in!

Mike Burk's review Presidential Cycle Septembers

2010-08-28T15:58:00.003-04:00

Mike Burk's technical analysis of the stock market is published each weekend at SafeHaven.com and you can even sign up to receive it free as an email newsletter each weekend. Check out his report last weekend - below is just one of his many charts. This one shows one measurement of September's performance in the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle:

VIX at (near-term) resistance

2010-08-25T21:02:00.003-04:00

Time doesn't permit me to draw trendlines as I used to. But VIX is testing one now. I expect it'll break above, but first should drop back.

Article: U.S. millionaire index turns sharply bearish | Reuters.com

2010-08-25T19:45:00.002-04:00

http://us.mobile.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUSTRE67O2NJ20100825

=============

U.S. millionaire index turns sharply bearish

Wed Aug 25, 2010 8:14am EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Spectrem millionaire investor confidence index fell to its lowest level in more than a year in August as wealthy U.S. investors worried about politics and unemployment, according to Spectrem Group.

The Spectrem Millionaire Investor Confidence Index fell 11 points in August to -18, its lowest level since June 2009, when it fell a record 18 points to -20 shortly after the S&P 500 index hit a 12-year low.

The move returns the index to mildly bearish territory after 12 straight months in neutral.

The Chicago-based consulting firm, which specializes in affluent and retirement markets, defines neutral as between -10 and +10 in the index, which ranges from -100 to +100.

"The millionaires' decline is particularly troubling since it suggests millionaires, typically more sophisticated than the broader affluent population, are reverting to a bearish frame of mind," said George Walper, president of Spectrem Group.

At the same time, the Spectrem Affluent Investor Confidence Index, which measures the outlook of households with $500,000 or more in investable assets, fell 4 points in August to -20, its third-straight monthly decline.

In response to an open-ended question about the factors most affecting their economic outlook, 18 percent of affluent investors cited the political environment, up from 13 percent last month, while 16 percent cited unemployment, up from 6 percent.

U.S. mid-term elections are coming up in November. Many affluent investors are worried that Bush-era tax breaks for investors will be allowed to expire at the end of the year, significantly increasing dividends tax.

Millionaires were more focused on the political environment, with 25 percent of respondents citing that, but less focused on unemployment, with 13 percent citing the labor market.

(Reporting by Edward Krudy; Editing by Neil Stempleman)

Article: Market Recap: Qualified as Short-term Bottom | Peter Pan | Safehaven.com

2010-08-22T19:05:00.002-04:00

Interesting stuff including the Gann dates 8/26, 9/10
http://www.safehaven.com/article/17916/market-recap-qualified-as-short-term-bottom

Yen's uptrend intact

2010-08-21T14:59:00.003-04:00

I'm not maintaining an EW count for the yen but I know Tony Caldaro does at his OEW public charts. Still it's clear from the indicators that the $XJY / FXY remains in the uptrend associated with going up to the higher levels in the 120's or more. That 111.49 pivot is well underneath now.

Banks' "Slow Bleed": Bloomberg article

2010-08-18T19:38:00.001-04:00

The banks' problems will remain a story for a very long time - evidenced by this article partially quoted, at Bloomberg today:

Banks Said to Face $134 Billion Loss on Refunds

Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among 11 lenders that could suffer $133.8 billion in combined losses as mortgage-bond investors and insurers demand refunds for soured loans, according to an analysis by Compass Point Research and Trading LLC.

That’s the base estimate by analyst Chris Gamaitoni, who told clients costs may range from $55.3 billion in a best-case scenario to $179.2 billion at worst. The losses would be in addition to $28 billion of buyback demands by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that Compass previously predicted. Deutsche Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are among lenders confronting the biggest potential impact, according to Gamaitoni’s report.

....

Why Breadth Matters - TheStreet

2010-08-18T12:19:00.006-04:00

http://www.thestreet.com/story/783358/why-breadth-matters.html

How to Trade: The Hindenburg Omen Stock Market Crash - TheStreet

2010-08-18T12:19:00.005-04:00

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10837097/1/how-to-trade-the-hindenburg-omen-stock-market-crash.html

Yen above $XJY 111.49 pivot again is bullish the yen FXY

2010-06-29T10:56:00.002-04:00

Big swing-trade triangle, QQQQ chart used to illustrade

2010-06-28T09:42:00.003-04:00

At right is the QQQQ chart on which I've marked my idea of a large triangle in the stock markets. I'm not saying this triangle idea is the only right idea but it looks like a tri. to me.

Notice the 200 dma as well as 50 dma are also operating. Plus, I've marked thinner horizontal lines where there's price support/resistance from the swing points within the triangle.

My thought has been that the triangle could be a "b" wave with the "c" wave down already in progress. I didn't mark the triangle's internal (a,b,c,d,e) waves, but the first (a-wave leg) would be the move back up testing the 50 dma after QQQQ had first dropped to the 200 dma. Back down to 200 dma would be the (b-wave leg), then up in c, down in d, and up in the e-leg which went above the c-leg point (which is okay in a triangle) but didn't exceed the a-wave high.

A move out of a triangle is usually swift and so far the move down has been that type of a thrust. It would be consistent with the idea that, once we get whatever bounce we get (and see Andre's report talking about spx 1084, plus the ChartsEdge work from Mike Korell), the continuation downward can be a real sharp move down. Maybe the spx would get to 950 or 1000.

If this continues down then it's also possible to measure the target at least two ways - first, taking the first drop to 200 dma as the bigger "a" wave, then the "c" wave drop down from the triangle would probably be symmetrical in length. Second, using the span of the largest leg within the triangle, then the move down would be equal to that - this is normally the method for measuring a 5-th wave thrust from a 4th-wave triangle. That's why I'd prefer to use the first c=a symmetry target.

Euro, Yen

2010-06-12T08:27:00.004-04:00

Euro remains in technical downtrend with the potential reversal I've been describing.

Yen in technical uptrend, and my sense is that it will continue upward.

FXE with positive divergence on daily (swing) view

2010-06-04T11:33:00.002-04:00

Important stock market warnings from T Theory

2010-05-14T11:39:00.003-04:00

Check out the following, from Terry Laundry's T Theory™ Foundation: T Theory™ Daily Updates, Forecasts, Charts and Data, at http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html

=============

Terry's T Theory™ Comment for May 13 2010 Close: The market is in a potentially dangerous long term situation right now. See the daily chart below.

The rally has faltered at normal mid channel resistance now S&P 1161. An important peak will occur either by May 20 or when the Volume Oscillator reaches the zero line.

I now realized the sharp correction we have seen is not a 13 week cycle phenomenon; it is a product of the conservative construction of the big #13 AD T in which the center post is placed at the Nov 20th 2008 low and the left end is early June 2007 and produces an early May projected peak date.

You can review its development in the archives at my T Theory Observation site. Look for topics in the category Advance-Decline Ts.

This conservative T, calculated on a electronic calendar calls for an early peak in early May, but a better way is to use Jim's SS below to count out the time symmetry in actual trading days. If you know how to do it send me the projected peak date using this technique and we can compare results.

Assuming the date proves to be around my original computation of May 6, I think I will have to accept the May 20th date for the above smaller A-D T and just say the actual peak will likely come a bit early, but I will arrive in this general time period, and it will do great damage both financially and psychologically.

If the oscillator can not reach the zero line or the green cash build up line in todays chart, the overall appearance of of all my indicators is like that preceding the 1987 (so-called) Crash" which was actually a severe "panic" produced by speculation using borrowed money or leverage.

If you are new to the investment world and "missed" the 1987 panic you should know that you must avoid being caught up in it because the after effect is that investors behavior will be changed for the rest of their lives. It can be a truly a mind altering experience even if you are out of harms way.

Gasoline (UGA) retesting 200-dma on weak technicals

2010-05-14T06:52:00.002-04:00

Yen daily & monthly charts

2010-05-11T23:34:00.003-04:00

Maybe we can count that low as C of an EW flat, now correcting first wave up if a series that will finally lead to new highs. The 111.49 pivot still very important. Notice on the monthly, my trendline might be a little off, but it got MA/BB support.

ChartsEdge BP for this week

2010-05-06T22:32:00.002-04:00

It's almost Friday so here's the full-week BP map that ChartsEdge has been showing at their subscriber site. Today's swoon isn't really suggested in it ... We'll just have to see if it does point to Friday closing at a level higher than today's low or today's close!

Apple target of potential antitrust probe

2010-05-03T18:59:00.002-04:00

Personally I consider the charge to be ridiculous and a sorry example of regulators bloated & drunk on stimulus $$$ - hey, why can't we get Competitive Government?!! Yeah! Let's break the monopoly of Bureaucratic Government!! LOL! Anyway, after the link is a copy of this news story: http://m.yahoo.com/w/ynews/article/topstories/18?url=http%3A%2F%2Fxml.news.yahoo.com%2Fus%2Fnews%2Frss%2Frichstoryrss.html%3Fu%3D%2Fnm%2Fus_apple_antitrust&.ts=1272926717&.intl=US&.lang=en

=============

The news comes amidst a high-profile dustup between Apple and Adobe Systems Inc , which makes the widely used Flash software to provide video and build games.

Although Flash is nearly ubiquitous on the Internet, Apple calls it a balky battery hog and Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs will not allow Flash on the iPhone or iPad, or as a tool to build apps on those devices.

Apple has sold more than 50 million iPhones since its debut in 2007, and 1 million iPads since its April 3 debut. The devices' popularity means extra scrutiny about every Apple move related to the smartphone platform.

Both the Federal Trade Commission and the Justice Department enforce U.S. antitrust law, and no decision has been made on which may take the probe on Apple, said the source, who spoke privately for business reasons.

The New York Post first reported regulators' interest in Apple's policy. The paper reported that the two agencies were locked in negotiations over which would handle the inquiry, and a decision was expected shortly.

"What they're (Apple) doing is clearly anticompetitive ... They want one superhighway and they're the tollkeeper on that superhighway," said David Balto, a former FTC policy director.

Apple, Adobe and the Justice Department declined to comment. The FTC did not respond to a request for a comment.

Apple has recently come under scrutiny from U.S. regulators for other reasons. Under pressure from the FTC, Google CEO Eric Schmidt stepped down from Apple's board of directors last year.

TECHNOLOGY WAR

After months of sniping at one another, the feud between Apple and Adobe broke into the open last week, when Jobs published an open letter where he slammed Flash as unsuitable for mobile devices .

Jobs called Flash "closed and proprietary" because Adobe controls the technology -- charges that have also been levied at Apple over the iPhone platform, which is also used for the iPad .

Apple has prohibited software developers from using Flash

-- and other programing languages -- to build apps for its newest iPhone platform, so these companies must use Apple-approved tools and custom-build their programs, which adds extra cost and work.

Apple said allowing third-party tools would result in "sub-standard" apps. But critics say the company is abusing its position.

"For us and the whole developers community, it really locks us into a single platform," said Michael Chang, chief executive of mobile ad network Greystripe, of Apple's rules.

Chang said a basic iPhone app might cost $75,000 to build on Flash, and a few thousand dollars more to convert it to work on Google Inc's Android mobile platform. But with the new restrictions, a developer must spend another $75,000 to build the app from the ground up for a non-Apple platform.

"For a small or medium-sized company, it becomes a real financial issue, and that's how it becomes anticompetitive," he said.

The iPhone has generated huge interest from app developers, who have created more than 200,000 programs, or apps, for the platform. Developers get 70 percent of the revenue they earn, while Apple takes 30 percent.

One developer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said Apple's new app development rules were just "incredibly broad. The fact that you can't use any other tools to build your app is just ridiculous."

But he acknowledged that apps built using Apple's tool look and run better than those built with third-party technology.

Simon Buckingham of the app blog Appitalism argued that developers could write for the Apple platform and other platforms easily using a WebKit open source browser standard.

"What they're (Apple critics) trying to do is make a mountain out of a molehill," he said.

(Reporting by Gabriel Madway, additional reporting by Diane Bartz in Washington; Editing by Steve Orlofsky, Leslie Gevirtz)

TRIN entering overbought (10 dma < .80)

2010-04-15T10:05:00.002-04:00

TLT

2010-04-13T17:30:00.003-04:00

Bonds are still trying to prolong what looks like the inevitable - lower prices, higher yields. As showing on the TLT chart. The 50 dma still under the 200 dma, and Bollinger Bands narrowing on the weekly. Clearly if prices break above the 200 dma then they might be able to breathe new life into these charts, but otherwise it's reasonable to expect price to roll over and down before too much longer, IMO.

NNVC (NanoViricides, Inc.)

2010-04-13T17:09:00.004-04:00

NNVC is one of the things we like, and sure we may as well credit "Allan" of the "All Allan" blog for telling everybody about it. I thought I'd check how it's doing since it hit the $2 mark recently. Using the Stockcharts default point and figure (P&F) is an easy way to check something out - not foolproof of course, but not bad either. For NNVC, it is showing a breakout since mid-January and the weekly chart (below) looks healthy to me too.

For example, on the weekly just see those raw buying volumes. They have a lot to do with why the indicators still look good on this stock.

I'm not going to say there will never be a pullback but pullbacks may be just a great chance to "buy the dips" for longer term investors. I like biotech in general, so I do not normally follow or recommend individual stocks. But I'm aware that some of my readers who also follow "Allan" like NNVC so that's why I'm putting up this post.

McClellan charts

2010-04-12T19:32:00.002-04:00

BPSPX, NYA>50dma

2010-04-06T21:23:00.004-04:00

Life continues to throw curve balls! Meanwhile, the market continues apace! Check out the $NYA % above 50 dma - pumping though can be approaching overbought. But not a bear of course, not broken.

TRIN

2010-03-11T08:02:00.002-05:00

Showing TRIN especially since Terry Laundry referred to it:

T Theory™ Foundation: T Theory™ Daily Updates,Forecasts, Charts and Data

2010-03-11T07:46:00.002-05:00

Read the whole update at

http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html

But (excusing the font problems) here's just an interesting part of it - and I'm thinking that he's thinking SPX 1126/1127, but read his prior if you didn't already. Part of his comments today:

On the other hand that correction would not be expected to interrupt the strong breadth trend headed up to the 3rd Bull T's projected peak in May. This is an unusual case because the warning which technically comes from the sum of the last 5 Arms Ratios being very low implies the upside volume is running too far ahead of the AD trend.

Yet as the chart shows, the breadth is very strong so we are not dealing with an Arms Warning in a weak trend which is the far worse case. Nevertheless a correction is coming and the S&P should find a low about midway between the red channel line and the black channel line as per my March 8 post below.

Article | An Important Resistance Level Technique ...

2010-02-25T21:26:00.002-05:00

By Marty Chenard at Safe Haven, http://www.safehaven.com/article-15915.htm.

Article | Did You Sell GLD, GDX, SLV?

2010-02-25T21:11:00.003-05:00

By Guy Lerner at Safe Haven, http://www.safehaven.com/article-15914.htm.

McClellan, Advance/Decline, TRIN

2010-02-25T17:07:00.002-05:00

NYAD actually rose a bit with the movement today. TRIN's MA's are mixed but not exactly overbought.

VIX, CPCE + quick comments

2010-02-23T19:25:00.003-05:00

Man it's a bunch of work setting up the new site, ChartLines.com! I'll explain more when time permits. Honestly there's other stuff going on too that really takes up time. Anyway - I really appreciate those who keep visiting and stay in touch. I'll keep this blog and just tie it more closely to ChartLines. Maybe someday another blog format will be even better - will see!

For now, a quick look at sentiment. VIX looks stuck between rock and hard place. CPCE relatively high for awhile. I'm getting feeling SPX is in a type of B wave with a C down which may retest 1044. More bearish possible too if the euro goes all the way to $112 in XEU/FXE.

Overly hot (bearish) SentimenTrader gauge

2010-02-18T20:56:00.003-05:00

At http://www.sentimentrader.com/:

INVESTOR SENTIMENT

Click here for more information

Safe Haven | Rydex Market Timers: Take A Guess Before You Read!

2010-02-17T23:09:00.000-05:00

Hmmmm? Indicators are mixed and market may hold up through Friday. But .... By Guy Lerner, 2/17 at http://www.safehaven.com/article-15843.htm.

McClellan

2010-02-10T22:24:00.000-05:00

Safe Haven | Rydex Market Timers: Are Now Bearish!

2010-02-10T22:15:00.000-05:00

By Guy Lerner of The Technical Take (2/10) at http://www.safehaven.com/article-15767.htm. Interesting and I think it supports our overall thesis but not sure it means we get a move over 1090 on this run.

Article: Is There Such a Thing as a "Lead Dog" Index?

2010-02-09T20:48:00.000-05:00

Marty Chenard at Safe Haven | Is There Such a Thing as a "Lead Dog" Index? - 2/9 at http://www.safehaven.com/article-15759.htm.

Sentimentrader

2010-02-09T20:27:00.002-05:00

Gold, crude oil

2010-02-09T19:42:00.002-05:00

still eeeek!

NDX:SPX, NAMO

2010-02-09T19:00:00.002-05:00

T Theory Foundation: T Theory Calculations, Daily Updates, Charts and Data

2010-02-09T11:35:00.003-05:00

Don't forget to read Terry's update this morning - includes interesting comments about early May. Link is http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html

US dollar

2010-02-09T05:39:00.002-05:00

The dollar went almost to the 80.80 c=a symmetry which Tony Caldaro has identified too, but not all the way there. My best take on it is that the dollar has decelerated but still needs to make that poke to test 80.80.

Also I suspect the dollar will get to 82 or higher by the time this equities drop into March has completed. Just wanted to say that near-term, I'll be quite surprised if the dollar drops much, prior to getting to the actual test of 80.80 in the $USD dollar index.

UnbiasedTrading - No Bull, No Bear, No Bias (tm)

Article: Market Outlook: Lower Low Then Green the Next Week | Peter Pan

Article: A Forward and Backward Look at the Cycles for 2011 | Clif Droke

Article: A Look at the Coming 6-Year Cycle Peak | Clif Droke

Bearish alt. wave counts

Article: Next 15 Years DJIA Chart - Stock Trader's Almanac Blog

Next 15 Years DJIA ChartBy Jeffrey A. HirschMarch 31, 2011

Article: A Bull Market Problem? | Marty Chenard | Safehaven.com

Article: The Reason Why the Market Does NOT Always Follow the VIX ... | Marty Chenard | Safehaven.com

CPCE, TRIN

Article: The Tectonic Shift in Oil and Gas Drilling

3 Reasons housing prices reaching a low

Solar cycle update info

Articles by Marty Chenard about $VIX charts

$VIX daily & weekly

My favorite technical charts

Gold daily, weekly & monthly charts

Chart: Large Drops in Bearish Sentiment, by Bespoke Investment Group, at SeekingAlpha

Article: Schaeffer's Monday Morning Outlook: Two Major Risk Factors for the Bulls | Market Observations

Swing charts suggest equities indices topping

Article: Full Transcript: Jeremy Grantham Interview

SPX, VIX, TRIN

McClellan charts

Bullish % charts

$SPX, $TRIN

McClellan: NYMO, NYSI

Bullish % charts

Gold charts

Oil $WTIC charts

SPX update charts

Sell warning vs. Nov.-April "power zone" theory

$SPX update charts

Gasoline charts

Oil charts

Oil ($WTIC)

Put-call ratio; VIX

Bullish %, McClellan Oscillator

Yen update w/ support levels

Dec. 16 low? Also gold & bonds charts at Terry Laundry's Weekly T Theory™ Observations - Week of November 21 2010

mp3 Commentary Download TTOAudio20101121A PDF Chart Download Next SRT20101119pdf

mp3 Commentary Download TTOAudio20101121B

PDF Chart DownloadMFIMidPointTopProjectionforJNK20101118pdf

PDF Download MFIMidPointTopProjectionforTLT20101112pdf

PDF Chart Download VUSTXwith 52 week ExpMApdf

mp3 Commentary Download TTOAudio20101121C

PDF Chart Download MFIMidPointTopProjectionforGLD20101118pdf

PDF Chart Download MFIMidPointTopProjectionforSPX20101118pdf

---Part D----------

mp3 Commentary Download TTOAudio20101121D

Article: Monday Morning Outlook: DJIA Manages a Slim Weekly Win and Reclaims 11,200 | Market Observations | Schaeffer's Investment Research

Article: When Does It Become Important to Watch the Level of New Lows? | Marty Chenard | Safehaven.com

Article: Classic Sign of Deflation Has Finally Happened in Cleveland, Detroit, and Phoenix | J.D. Rosendahl | Safehaven.com

Yen review: uptrend with negative divergence showing

Cyclicality in Dow Jones Industrials

Article: Can Institutional Buying and Selling Levels Predict the Market's Direction? | Marty Chenard

Article: Market Recap: Is 11%+ Up Guaranteed Till the Year End? | Peter Pan

Energy looking like a leader.

Refiners. . . nahhh

A big move for energy.

Spreading the bets but increased my short hedge.

How long to keep em?

Huge wall of QQQQ puts

Keeping it tight

QQQQ testing .786 Fib, daily swing

A big hmmmmm

Good R/R on short ETFs.

I hate buying banks, but

Euro, Yen (monthly charts, updated)

Some small tweaks

QQQQ $44 "max pain"

Tuesday.

Friday Update

Article: Does the Bull Market End Now or Continue On? | Marty Chenard | Safehaven.com

$NatGas & UNG (maybe a 4th wave consol ahead? or is low getting put in soon)

Mike Burk's review Presidential Cycle Septembers

VIX at (near-term) resistance

Article: U.S. millionaire index turns sharply bearish | Reuters.com

Wed Aug 25, 2010 8:14am EDT

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Yen's uptrend intact

Next 15 Years DJIA Chart
By Jeffrey A. Hirsch
March 31, 2011

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