Dollar, gold and all that

Folks, I unexpectedly got pulled into a very nice happy hour this evening! So little time and somehow just tipsy enough I can't manage around some technical difficulties in posting charts tonight. What a fun problem! Anyway the dollar $USD touched 74.77, is it enough? So often price will get near a Fibonacci level and react. Then sometimes that was it. But often, price needs to return and do a deeper test, even overshooting it. So I can't be surprised if the dollar index goes under 74.75 maybe for a day.

Like the QQQQ, it's finally overshot $43.30 after grinding against for a long time. Point for bears now is, watch what happens on the next reversal day when QQQQ closes under prior day low. If it works, it will send it back under $43.30. And we've obviously got similar tests for the Dow now, and the SPX if it can tag that $1121 that Tony sees as its own 50% level.

Gold made a low in $GOLD at $1097.20, but its high was like $1109, not the $1118 that news reported, it's cash versus the $GOLD continuous contract. Tony's target was $1119 but I don't know if that was cash or $GOLD. Pretty darn close anyway!

Should be very interesting set of days now into opex on Friday 11/20!

T Theory update

Terry Laundry updates and explains his view of the bull v. bear
potential, at http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html. Check it out. I think it sums up to, if the SPX makes a new high and breaks above the upper red line, then his new bigger longer-term bullish T comes into effect. Well - we've got to be open to the possibility! Just as I'm looking at the QQQQ back above $43.30. Okay, will see! I'm not expecting the bullish case but won't fight it if that's what it becomes. Just taking it one day at a time here.

Louise Yamada on the Market's Direction

It's a video posted at Seeking Alpha, and I hate to confess, haven't watched it yet because using my iPhone and it didn't display on my iPhone - but should be worth a view: http://seekingalpha.com/article/172428-louise-yamada-on-the-market-s-direction.

Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight

http://slopeofhope.com/
Thanks to the commenter who reminded me to look. And I agree that oil is in a potentially precarious position as I've covered recently at UBT...

Cobra's Market View

http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/, including a post (scroll a bit) saying this earlier today:

Noticed that ISEE Equities Only Index closed at 231, this is a little bit too high. The previous 5 cases when the ISEE Equities Only Index was closed above 230, were marked by blue arrows on the chart below. Considering this is a 10 days up cycle, so the market may have one more push. The bear’s hope is that this is a back test of the broken Bearish Rising Wedge, but I won’t count on it, as I don’t remember so far this year any traditional TA setup worked for bears – the bear’s only hope is extreme extreme extreme conditions and unfortunately such kind of conditions still are a few days away.

Charts galore: PPT from Mike Burks' group

This is the link from Mike Burk who posts at Safe Haven, who's been referenced by Andre too (and predicted the Dow higher this week) - click the link shown on the page for the PowerPoint, you will get your fill of charts! I'm starting to include Mike's weekend update in my reading and weekly articles listing. He mentions that Gordon Harms posts the PPT chart set. You'll find Mike's weekly update at SafeHaven.com - I included his article in my listing post at UBT this past weekend.

The chart set is dated 11/2 but who cares because they are longer term in focus (swing trade), and include stuff like cycles, money supply, gold, bonds, etc.: http://www.stockmarket-ta.com/

Article | Big Cycle Date for Gold This Week

By David Nichols (email: editorial@fractalgoldreport.com), posted at Safe Haven - looks like the possibility of a cycle crest leading to a pullback fits with recent views posted - Tony's target is 1119, and I think it just needs to finish a small 5th wave soon. I'm think 960 is obvious place to look for support but posted on the topic at UBT over the weekend. Anyway here's the link, http://www.safehaven.com/article-14974.htm.

I don't know which cycles he uses. I do know that DSI and others think gold is in a cycle upwave for some more years, and that Ray Merriman was saying there'll be a great buying opportunity in gold late 2008 or early 2010. So I'm quite interested in the pullback opportunity and hope to time it well. If "lucky" there may be a great wave 2 pullback :^]

QQQQ $43.30 retest

The QQQQ still seems fascinated with the .618 retrace level around $43.30. It didn't spend an entire day above it with reversal down - which happens often enough, so will see. Andre Gratian spike of a projection to $46 - I wouldn't look for that based on the point about merely testing beyond $43.30, so if it gains strength beyond $43.30 then maybe .... Gotta admit I'm not keen on it, will just keep an eye on how it reacts in this area.

NDX:SPX, SPX:VXO

Advance/decline

Maybe you can read this either way. I kinda thought the A/D was looking overbought - or maybe it was more of an oversold rally still:

T Theory update, Terry Laundry

Hmmm - this is what Terry Laundry just posted this evening, at http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html. As much as I like his work, I'm nervous because he did go bullish in February right before the market dropped into March. So I want to let it shake out a bit and watch the EW and other factors:

T Theory Calculations, Daily Updates, Charts and Data
Daily Chart with Data is being Posted after the Market Close by 6:30 PM Eastern Time.
Download Latest T Theory Chart and Data

Monday Nov 9th Comment: New T formed unexpectedly. Note double bottom in green AD Line along with the oscillator upside breakout of Cash Build Up line. That is sufficient to confirm a new T.

Listen to Terry Laundry's T Theory Observations Sunday afternoon for details.

SentimenTrader gauge hot

Pretty hot:

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