UNG & Natural Gas, bubbling again-?

Borrowing Tony's Nat Gas chart - note says downtrending but 8 dema just poked over 34 dema so may be enough to turn it? Also below is UNG - its CMF indicator less negative but not positive yet so gotta be careful, if buying consider your stop placement or use other good money mgmt methods. I think the indicators can turn but since this is bottom picking, it's still a bit dicey. But when it's ready for next wave up, should be a good one.

One theory, it's going to bounce and then one more wave or zigzag down so allow for that possibility. If it's right then should have some bounce first - JMO of course (thinking UNG could be in large diagonal needing one more new low after bounce, tho not extremely certain of it). Volume wasn't super but was not bad on UNG as it rose today.

Article: Option Plays for Falling Gold Prices

Some thoughts on using options to hedge or play a drop in gold prices, with the idea of not taking on too much risk: http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/November/falling-gold-prices.html

McClellan charts

MO not making new highs. SI consolidated - either up or down out of that, either way to be respected!

Advance/decline: NYAD, NAAD

Will see what Terry Laundry's A/D shows, breakout or not. The ones I can generate at Stockcharts.com don't show a b/o.

Dollar, Gold

Just some comments I posted in reply to a question at UBT:

The USD can go down to spend a day underneath that 74.75, then look for reversal day closing above prior day's high. As for 73.58, it's based on a Fib extension in case it's the C of an ABC flat - those notes should be on on on my USD charts, look at both day and weekly charts I've posted.

I think failing to rebound smartly from the 74.75 test is not sign of strength. Tony Caldaro made good comments on USD recently, maybe in last night postings at his blog comments. About the USD maybe dropping with stocks in initial drop of equities C wave down, then the dollar can rise as stocks continue down. Much later, the USD dropping again. I'm paraphrasing though. Bottom line, I'm moving away from idea the dollar will rally above 92 - but near term, both dollar and gold are reaching extremes and should trend reverse soon. Look, gold is close to the 1185, and to the 1192 and 1200. BTW, there's a reversal time window for gold this week too - though can't guarantee that alone would make a major top for gold, could be intermediate.

NASDAQ CompQ

Borrowing Tony Caldaro's charts of CompQ (thanks Tony! - see his site link at right) - I can't guarantee if it'll make its own small h&s with a trap door pointing down from here. But the risk looks greater now. Tony isn't showing where he'd mark the c to complete B, but I'm sure once a trend reversal pattern prints then he'll do it. Meantime the Nasdaq is obviously at price resistance still so I can't recommend trying to go long fronting a breakout that has reasons not to show up!

Crude oil testing support

Crude oil stalled at the Fib cluster as you can see on the longer term, monthly chart. The daily chart shows it testing support though - which is a convenient place to gauge whether it loses support. Maybe the EW is supposed to be bullish but I think it's also valid to consider shorting or hedging unless it breaks out to the upside.

Gold uptrend intact, still focusing on $1192/1200

The indicators are confirming the price uptrend, so far so good and still focused on that $1192-1200 area:

T Theory Update: "no need to chase strength"

Remember to read Terry's updates each evening at http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html

Here's what he posted there last night:

Download Latest T Theory Chart and Data

Monday Nov 23th Comment: Today's advance was constructive for my bullish forecast but an upside breakout is still desired. After the upside breakout a short pullback is likely so no need to chase strength. See possible T in chart. Terry

When you click to see it, he's showing a possible new T pointing to high in late November. But it isn't confirmed yet by a breakout, as he mentions.

Interesting swing analysis, equities

If it might prove useful - not sure, but here's the info: Alpha Investment Management, http://alphaim.net/power_newsletter.html.

Financials/XLF

The financials fell back after that swing high .618 retracement to the earlier high on daily chart. The RSI indicator was a little strong but if the most recent swing high holds, XLF should lead the markets lower.

Rolling top; & T-bills go negative

At Jesse's Café Américain: http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/